By Oluchi Omai
July 9, 2025 | CALABAR
The recent announcement of a 30-party coalition led by the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027 has been met with familiar optimism in some quarters. Yet, for seasoned observers of Nigeria’s political theatre, this move reeks of historical amnesia. Nigeria’s opposition politics is a graveyard of failed coalitions, and the ADC’s effort appears destined to join them. Here’s why:
1. The Chronic Cancer of Opposition Disunity
Nigerian opposition coalitions collapse under the weight of personal ambitions and ideological vacuums. The ADC coalition – much like the 2019 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) alliance with 38 parties – lacks a binding ideology beyond "remove Tinubu." As political scientist Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim noted:
"Opposition unity in Nigeria is transactional, not transformational. Without shared principles, egos fracture them faster than INEC can print ballots."
The PDP’s implosion in 2015 and Labour Party’s internal crises post-2023 exemplify this pattern. Coalition talks already show cracks, with key parties like the NNPP and SDP withholding commitment.
2. APC’s Financial & Institutional Artillery
Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) commands resources the opposition can only dream of. Nigeria’s politics runs on money: from mobilising crowds to litigating elections. The APC’s access to state coffers and patronage networks creates an asymmetric battlefield. INEC’s 2023 data revealed APC spent ₦14.2 billion on its campaign, triple the PDP’s expenditure. ADC Chairman Ralph Nwosu’s promise of "issue-based campaigning" ignores Nigeria’s naira-based reality.
3. The Electoral Framework Favours Incumbents
Nigeria’s electoral architecture tilts toward sitting governments:
- INEC’s Inconsistencies: Delayed PVC distributions, disputed technology (e.g., 2023 IReV failures), and logistical chaos disproportionately hurt opposition strongholds.
- Judicial Hurdles: Post-election litigation favours deep-pocketed incumbents. Of 1,200 election petitions filed since 1999, <20% resulted in overturned results (EUOM 2023 Report).
- Structural Gerrymandering: State apparatuses are weaponised to suppress opposition. Recall Kano’s 2023 police siege during NNPP rallies or Rivers’ APC-PDP proxy wars.
4. The Northern Calculus & Voter Apathy
No coalition wins without Northern Nigeria’s bloc vote. Yet Tinubu’s APC retains firm control of:
- Key Northern Governors: Ganduje (Kano), el-Rufai’s successors (Kaduna), and religious elites.
- Disillusioned Electorate: Voter turnout plummeted to 26.7% in 2023 (INEC). ADC’s urban-elite image struggles to resonate with rural voters, more concerned with inflation (33.9% as of Q1 2025, NBS) than coalition manifestos. As political commentator Sam Amadi tweeted:
"When the average Nigerian sees ‘coalition’, they see ‘politicians reshuffling chairs’. Survival trumps solidarity."
5. Tinubu’s Machiavellian Machine
Tinubu didn’t earn the moniker "Jagaban" (leader of warriors) by accident. His playbook includes:
- Co-optation: Fragile coalitions bleed members to APC appointments (see: 2023 PDP defections).
- Media Dominance: State-owned NTA and APC-aligned stations (e.g., TVC) control rural narratives.
- Security Leverage: Federal control of police/military deters opposition mobilisation.
APC spokesman Felix Morka’s smirk during the ADC announcement said it all: "Another fractious marriage of convenience. We’ll send aso ebi."
The Verdict: History’s Echo Chamber
Nigeria’s opposition politics follows a tragic cycle: Unity → Euphoria → Fragmentation → Oblivion. The ADC coalition checks every box. Without addressing systemic flaws – ideological bankruptcy, funding parity, and electoral integrity – this effort is less a threat and more a tribute act to past failures.
As the late political strategist Dele Momodu once lamented:
"In Nigeria, opposition unity is the bridge politicians burn after crossing it themselves."
Tinubu sleeps soundly. The graveyard of coalitions has just reserved Plot 30.
About the Author:
Oluchi Omai is a Calabar-based Journalist with great experience. Follow on Twitter and Facebook @Oluchiomai.
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